Is 2016 the year of the owner occupier?
The Urban Development Institute of Australia (Queensland) Research Foundation, proudly presented by C
30 November, 2015 6 min read
The Urban Development Institute of Australia (Queensland) Research Foundation, proudly presented by CSQ, today previewed the findings of the third Industry Insights Report revealing the trends in land, house and apartment sales, supply and prices across Queensland.
Prepared by The National Property Research Company (NPR Co), the Industry Insights Report gathers market intelligence from those who know the industry best – real estate agents and developers across 15 regional areas.
The Report reveals the extraordinary nature of the State’s residential property market in 2015, with a marked shift in focus back from regional Queensland to put the spotlight firmly on the South East. Owner occupiers are expected to return to the market in force as their choices begin to increase and the outlook for interest rates remains positive.
SEQ hotspots include Brisbane, Gold Coast, Ipswich, Logan and Moreton Bay, all showing price growth in land and house sales volume. Medium to high density median prices – houses and apartments – remained fairly static, with growing sales volume, this is a reflection of the strong supply into the market in this category.
The UDIA (Qld) Industry Insights Report also reveals:
- In Brisbane, almost all respondents reported a rising market across all forms of housing over the last six months, with the majority view that we were yet to see the top of the cycle for apartments. Interest rates and population growth were cited as the most positive market influences.
- The outlook for the Sunshine Coast is positive, whilst median price rises were slight across the board, the hospital nearing completion, investigation into improved transport infrastructure, economic diversification and an improving domestic tourism market.
- In Ipswich, the market is steadily rising, although there was concern about the negative impacts of low employment growth and infrastructure investment that may limit growth. Two thirds of respondents reported healthy levels of demand from international buyers.
- Logan, Gladstone and Toowoomba led the state for land, with modest growth in land volume sales. Whilst Gladstone is coming off a low base, the outlook is more positive into 2016. Toowoomba is riding the wave of infrastructure projects, and there was strong agreement that demand had increased across the board for all forms of housing. Logan has reaped the benefits of two major masterplanned communities and may well prove to be Brisbane’s newest and most dynamic corridor.
- Population growth in the Fraser Coast, Mackay and Gladstone has challenged recovery in these LGAs. Mackay and Gladstone continue to experience oversupply, but are optimistic for improved conditions and see the affordability as the silver lining for buyers over the next 12 months.
- In Bundaberg, it was the opinion of respondents that positive growth in the market will be driven by low interest rates and affordability.
- Whilst sales volumes in Cairns cooled since the last report, median prices rose across the board, and the industry eagerly awaits the commencement and/or confirmation of major infrastructure projects.
- The outlook for the Gold Coast is very positive with a large majority of respondents confident about a continuing rising market, particular for houses, and very healthy overseas demand from both investors and owner occupiers.
UDIA (Qld) President Brett Gillan said Queensland’s new property market made a positive contribution to economic growth and jobs in Queensland in the first half of 2015, noting the buoyancy of the South East Queensland market.
“We are seeing the return of owner occupiers to the market, and they are looking for diversity and fresh choices in housing types and locations. Our challenge is to respond to this demand, and meet their lifestyle aspirations at an affordable price,” he said.
“We are seeing positive signs across the state, and increasing the supply of developable land will facilitate and encourage greater economic growth. UDIA (Qld) is actively working with the State Government to ensure that developable land is released to the market in a timely manner, so we can respond to the needs of home buyers and the community,” Mr Gillan said.
“We are very aware of the challenges that regional communities outside of South East Queensland continue to face and we have been working closely with our industry, local councils and the State Government in 2015, to assist with the creation of local planning schemes that have the best interests of the communities’ future at heart.”
Industry Insights researcher, NPR Co Managing Director Matthew Gross, said that the research throws the spotlight on the factors behind the vastly variable market conditions being experienced across Queensland.
“The Industry Insights Report provides in-depth and localised insights into the market across 15 local government areas,” Mr Gross said. “Each of the 15 LGA’s featured in the research are facing unique challenges, opportunities and conditions, and the Report explores each of these in depth, to give a truly comprehensive and localised picture of what is happening at the grassroots level.”
“The Report suggests that confidence and certainty, interstate capital inflows and a resurgence in the stock market are issues to watch in 2016.”
CSQ CEO Brett Schimming said The UDIA (Qld) Research Foundation, that has just celebrated its first anniversary, has filled a gap in industry knowledge that CSQ is proud to have been able to facilitate.
“The housing and construction industry is one of the most important economic drivers and this research helps to keep industry informed. The more we know the better we can plan housing developments and ensure we have the right skills and training in place to meet future needs,” he said.
The direction of The Foundation’s research program is driven by the Industry Leaders’ Research Group representing Stockland, Amex Corp, Lend Lease, Australand, Investa, Peet, Pradella Property Ventures, Excel Development Group, Defence Housing Australia, Pointcorp, AV Jennings, Wentworth Equities, McNab and PLACE Design Group.
Mr Gillan said, “The Industry Insights research is big part of UDIA’s (Qld) commitment to assisting the industry to understand what is happening in markets around Queensland and plan for the future delivery of the right type of housing in the right locations, at the right time. Our Industry Leaders Group provides valuable advice on the most relevant research needs on the horizon, and ensures we provide timely and practical insights.”
Anecdotal comments included within the report are included to add local sentiment to the richness of data provided and are not the view of the UDIA (Qld) or its regional branches.
The findings of the report will be previewed at an exclusive event in Brisbane today. Copies of the report are available on request from December 14. In the interim a fact sheet is attached for your reference.