Renewables

Meeting Queensland’s renewable energy aspiration will require up to a 50-fold increase in renewable electricity assets by 2050, according to exclusive CSIRO modelling. It will mean growing the state’s installed renewable capacity from a modest 3.8GW to as much as 196GW.

The task ahead

Our report unpacks the level of capital investment that will be needed to deliver this outcome, and the number and types of construction jobs that it will create.

The task is substantial. The renewables transition will see as much as $14 billion in capital investment each year on average between 2021 and 2050. This will translate into an additional 27,000 construction jobs across the state.

Queensland's renewables build-out (2021-2050)

1

The global imperative

The race to decarbonise is on

Over 96% of current global CO2 emissions are now subject to a national net zero ambition.

Countries with net zero ambitions

Queensland is all-in – but there’s a long road ahead

Australia has a global reputation for being slow moving in our climate response, but Queensland has held a net-zero goal since 2017 and has been one of the world’s earliest movers on green hydrogen.

Yet Queensland alone accounts for nearly a third of the nation’s total emissions and has the lowest proportion of renewable power penetration.

Queensland

31% of Aus emissions (highest emitter)

Current emissions

163.5Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

30% reduction

2050

100% reduction

New South Wales

26% of Aus emissions

Current emissions

136.6Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

50% reduction

2050

100% reduction

Victoria

16% of Aus emissions

Current emissions

91.3Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

50% reduction

2050

100% reduction

South Australia

5% of Aus emissions

Current emissions

23.9Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

50% reduction

2050

100% reduction

Western Australia

17% of Aus emissions

Current emissions

91.9Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

No target set

2050

100% reduction

Northern Territory

4% of Aus emissions

Current emissions

20.6Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

No target set

2050

100% reduction

Tasmania

0% of Aus emissions

Current emissions

-1.7Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

(Achieved in 2015)

Australian Capital Territory

4% of Aus emissions

Current emissions

1.3Mt

Emissions reduction target

2030

75% reduction

2045

100% reduction

Electrification will get us most of the way there

Electrifying our everyday lives could remove around half or more of our emissions.

This will require an increase in electrification from 25% today to an estimated 70% by 2050. And most of that electricity will need to be sourced from renewables like solar and wind.

Energy use by source, Queensland, 2020 and 2050

Clean hydrogen fills the gap

What can’t be electrified will need to be decarbonised with clean fuels. Hydrogen stands tall amongst the alternatives.

By June 2022, 31 countries had released national hydrogen strategies, visions or roadmaps. These countries account for 70% of global economic activity.

The H2 export opportunity

Many countries with ambitious net-zero goals lack the natural renewable assets to satisfy them. Other jurisdictions enjoy a surplus of assets with relatively modest energy needs.

Producing clean hydrogen in one location and shipping it to another will be a big part of the solution to these imbalances. Queensland’s remarkable natural advantages puts it in pole position to emerge as a key global exporter of clean hydrogen.

2

The energy transition

We partnered with CSIRO to model three scenarios

Each scenario begins with the amount of renewables needed for Queensland to achieve net zero by 2050. We then introduce different assumptions about the role of the hydrogen economy – ranging from Queensland becoming a powerhouse exporter of hydrogen, to it being primarily a domestic consumer of clean hydrogen.

Each scenario, therefore, represents one plausible path for Queensland’s total renewables transition, given different assumptions about the role of clean hydrogen.

Scenario 1

Export + Domestic

Scenario 2

Export-led

Scenario 3

Domestic-led

From zero to 100 in three short decades

The modelling suggests that Queensland will need to have installed somewhere between an additional 105GW and 192GW of renewables by 2050.

Queensland’s current installed capacity of electricity generation is around 16.2GW, of which renewables constitute only 3.8GW.

Installed renewable generation capacity, Queensland (cumulative)

3

The investment response

Bridging this gap will require a staggering amount of construction

We estimate that capital expenditure on renewables could range from $6.7 billion per annum to $13.9 billion per annum to 2050.

Renewables capital expenditure, Queensland (annual average, 2021-2050)

The build-out has already begun

Approximately $21 billion of renewables projects will be delivered by 2025; that’s around 20% of Queensland’s major project pipeline.

Queensland’s renewable pipeline (% share of major projects)

4

The labour response

The longer-term labour requirement is much more substantial

The estimated number of construction jobs that will be created by Queensland’s renewables build-out will range from 14,500 to 26,700 on average between 2021 and 2050.

Around half of this labour demand will be absorbed by the hydrogen economy. A future without any hydrogen, would require only 8,200 construction workers on average for the renewables build-out.

Renewables-related construction labour demand, Queensland (average, 2021-2050)

This will drive a step-change in the construction workforce

Regardless of the path of Queensland’s renewables transition, Queensland’s construction workforce will need to be substantially increased or redeployed to the renewables build-out.

Our ‘Export + Domestic’ scenario would see a permanent 10% increase in the total construction workforce in Queensland. Most of this labour will be employed in civil construction. This step-change will be comparable to the mining boom. But unlike the mining boom, the renewables transition will not be a temporary shock to the labour force. It represents a permanent lift in the demand for construction labour in Queensland.

Renewables labour requirement

Middle- and low-skilled jobs dominate the labour profile

Our modelling suggests the renewables boom will create demand for a wide range of jobs and skills. Middle-skilled tradespeople and machine operators, along with low-skilled labour, will absorb most of the jobs created by the renewables transition.

Renewables skills demand profile

5

The regional boom

Almost all of Queensland’s renewable investment will land in the regions

Our modelling suggests that regional Queensland is the most cost-effective location for most types of renewables investment. Between 62% and 96% of investment will be spread across three areas of regional Queensland.

Northern Queensland is the standout performer, capturing between $4 billion and $6.5 billion of renewables investment per year up to 2050.

Renewables-related capital investment, by region (annual averages)

All Queensland

Scenario	2021-30	2031-40	2041-50
Export + Domestic	$8b	$14.7b	$18.8b
Export-led	$2.3b	$6b	$13.8
Domestic-led	$2.2b	$7b	$10.9b

Regional QLD

Scenario	2021-30	2031-40	2041-50
Export + Domestic	$6.3b	$9.5b	$10b
Export-led	$2.2b	$5.3b	$11.9b
Domestic-led	$2b	$6.5b	$10.7b

North QLD

Scenario	2021-30	2031-40	2041-50
Export + Domestic	$3.5b	$8.9b	$6.9b
Export-led	$741m	$3.9b	$6.5b
Domestic-led	$1b	$4.8b	$6.2b

South-East QLD and Wide Bay

Scenario	2021-30	2031-40	2041-50
Export + Domestic	$1.6b	$5b	$8.7b
Export-led	$132m	$720m	$1.8b
Domestic-led	$20m	$545m	$166m

Central QLD

Scenario	2021-30	2031-40	2041-50
Export + Domestic	$830m	$400m	$2.9b
Export-led	$1.6m	$1.7m	$5.2b
Domestic-led	$2.6m	$273m	$4b

South-West QLD

Scenario	2021-30	2031-40	2041-50
Export + Domestic	$1.9b	$185m	$186m
Export-led	$1.4b	$1.3b	$188m
Domestic-led	$1.1b	$1.5b	$326m

A regional jobs bonanza

The labour picture broadly mirrors the pattern of investment – between 52% and 94% of the construction jobs created by renewables projects will be located in regional Queensland.

That said, there is a clear role for South-East Queensland and Wide Bay, particularly in the Export + Domestic scenario which sees these regions capturing a larger share of construction labour.

Renewables labour demand, by region (average)